If you have not worked out why we do not have criteria for a border poll, let us start by reiterating what is in the 1998 agreement. As you point out, the agreement states clearly, if ambiguously, that the Secretary of State shall call a border poll if it “appears likely that there is a majority here for Irish unity.” If the Belfast Agreement of 1998 had to agree on a trigger event for a border poll, such as a majority in the assembly or a demographic threshold, then we could have had to wait until 2008 for a Belfast Agreement. You seem to assume that if there was a demographic trigger event, the majority of Catholics would vote in favour of a united Ireland; like John Manley, you seem to be ignorant of middle-class Catholics who do not see Irish unity through “Shamrock-Tinted Glasses.” Apologies for bursting your border poll bubble again; the Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey in 2022, analysed by the Institute of Government, found that around 40% of Northern Irish adults do not see themselves as Unionist or Nationalist. I would call these people “Pragmatists,” and it reinforces my “Shamrock Tinted Glasses” comment
This sentence in the agreement that gave the Secretary of State the exclusive mandate to call for a border poll was accepted by all parties, including the Irish government, which saw the UK government, which included Blair and Powell, as an honest broker. Just historically, the British government, long before Partition, did not want a divided Ireland; you can blame Craig and Carson for that. You say that the Secretary of State should at least show how he would make up his mind, and there should be no Machiavellian excuse not to do so. I wonder if you would ask Sinn Féin to explain what they mean by a “New Ireland” and the new economic utopia it will create. Maybe a good place to start would be some creative thinking about a new governing structure in which the voices of the “new minority” will be heard. Furthermore, I hope a united Ireland is not a Jim O’Callaghan one, which is 26 counties with a pig with lipstick attached. Colm Eastwood, who during his tenure as party leader saw the demise of the SDLP and now rants on about Irish unity. Seriously, Colm, no one is listening. Maybe, as an alleged social democratic party, Colm and his party colleagues should put their efforts into making this place work in the interests of ordinary working people.
As expected, Mary Lou was straight out of the trap flinging her dead cat around, condemning Burnham’s remarks. Would you have expected anything less from her, especially when Sinn Féin’s political street cred in recent polls in the 26 counties has fallen from a high of 37% to 24% and in a downward trajectory here.
The Prime Minister, who is a political realist and has ruled out a border poll in the near term because he has bigger issues on his in-tray. About trust, the last time the British trusted the electorate, we got Brexit. To have a border could throw this place into political turmoil, and on that basis alone the Prime Minister’s position is actually easy to justify. My position is clear, and it is not an anti-unity position: no plan, no poll. By the way, I would suggest a trigger event: that is, when our so-called public representatives start doing their job; now that would be kicking the can down a very long road.
Suneil Sharma
2nd September 2026
The Gob 
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