We leave 2024 with the world in turmoil and an unpredictable geo-political environment. We have the second coming in the form of the Donald, the arrival of Keir, whose lack of political antennae is worrying, Macron in trouble, unable to keep the right or the left content, and the upcoming German Federal election, which will see Olaf trounced, and the disturbing rise of the AFD. Another COP has seen another copout, with no serious attempt to invest in mitigating the upcoming climate crisis. The genocide in Gaza continues with the closet fascists in the Israeli cabinet now wishing to see the creation of a greater Israel at any cost. This goal has seen a big step forward with the appointment of the new US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, an evangelical White Christian Zionist who believes that there are no such people as Palestinians. His Christian Zionism wants to see Armageddon and the destruction of the world which will herald the “second coming” of Christ. Even Jesus Christ is shouting “JESUS CHRIST, do you believe all the stuff in the Old Testament, Dad changed, he is much nicer in the new bit.”
The unexpected fall of Assad’s brutal regime, a regime that killed hundreds of thousands of its citizens, caused millions to flee and imprisoned and tortured tens of thousands including children, is a small chink of light in a dark world. However, the murderer is now residing with his soul mate Putin in Moscow and his henchmen have escaped to Iran, leaving Syria to be rebuilt by Democrats, Kurds, Liberals, and the former associates of the Islamic State. Democracies such as the UK, the US, and many in Europe should feel ashamed as they stood by as Assad’s regime used chemical warfare, barrel bombs and carpet bombing to hold on to power. Yet again as with the fight for Palestinian self-determination the Saudis, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and others in the region stood by and did nothing. Almost 50 years after the words “Never Again” were uttered we as a species have learned nothing.
Let’s move on with my rant in order of geo-political influence which means not necessarily in the size of your GDP.
On January 20th, Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the USA, and along with him will come true believers in the America First strategy. Part of this will be to undermine and Stalinise the state and make all the branches of Government kiss Donald’s ring. When I say Donald, I mean the Heritage Foundation and other members of the asylum like Gorka, Patel, Hesketh, and Huckabee, to name a few. We know that Trump will be a transactional leader, whether on trade, global conflicts, alliance’s military or otherwise. On trade will he impose swingeing tariffs, probably not at the levels suggested as this would increase inflation something he raged about against Biden. On Ukraine, he seems to have tempered his stance as in a recent post he noted the Ukraine war has cost Russia 600,000 soldiers killed or wounded, a war that Putin should have never started. The Russian economy is in tatters, with 21% inflation and where 40% of Russia’s petrostate economy is being pumped into the war effort. What is clear, Russia is weak and now needs North Korean soldiers in Kursk. Russia has left Syria quietly with its tail between its legs, this is because it still wants its military bases in the region. However, with Putin unable to support the Assad regime militarily, he has given his good friend Bashir sanctuary. Donald, more likely his advisors have persuaded him that an unjust piece in Ukraine will embolden Putin’s Czarist instincts.
In the Middle East, the US proxy Israel has diminished Iran’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah in addition to highlighting Iran’s military shortcomings such as being unable to defend itself against air attacks and unable to stop the fall of their best friend and mass murderer Bashir al Assad. It now seems that the US may have new influence in the region an influence that should persuade Israel that Palestinian self-determination is the best way to secure both its security and economic future. Iran has aligned itself with Russia to what benefit? Like Russia its economy is also in tatters, discontent with the regime is rife, and corruption is endemic. As Iran’s sphere of influence has virtually disappeared, the best thing for Iran is that the Supreme Leader signs off on the advice of Archangel Gabriel. However, in the short run war will continue to determine the shape of the region, Israel will continue its genocide in Gaza, and its ethnic cleansing in the occupied territories with one objective, to create a greater Israel.
The US economy is unique among developed economies. The 47th President will inherit a resilient economy with unemployment at 4%, growth at over 2%, and an interest rate heading to under 4%. The US which represents 4% of the world’s population contributes 25% of the world’s GDP and 60% of the global stock market value so, any move to an America First strategy will hurt us all. So, risks to the world economy will be predicated on how aggressively the Trump administration will hike tariffs, slash taxes which will increase the deficit, cut social security including Obama care, and deport millions disrupting the labour market and inevitably raising inflation, something he ranted about during his campaign. As a climate sceptic, he will surely “drill baby drill” but is unlikely to reverse the successes of the Inflation Reduction Act which has and will continue to see huge investments in the green transition, in addition, the Chips Act has re-shored high-tech chip manufacturing. It is also important to note that 60% of the investment provided by the act has gone to republican states. The ultra-right Heritage Foundation want to upend the governance which will include deregulation such as environmental protection, small government, and unrestrained free markets, let us hope there are a few Romney Republicans still about. We can be assured that the next 4 years will be unpredictable, at best.
To finish on the Democrats, reorganise the organisation, reconnect with your historical core, and stop talking about college-educated and non-college-educated as if one has more brains than the other. Invoke class not identity when building a coalition. Develop a new comms and media strategy fit for this millennium, and push for a universal healthcare system. The current system costs a family of 4 almost £20,000 annually and where drugs cost several times more than in other countries. While not condoning the murder of the healthcare executive Brian Thompson by Luigi Mangione it sends a clear message about the profit-focused healthcare insurance and pharmaceutical industry which spends almost $1.0 billion on lobbying, buying off senators and house representatives. Reverse Citizens United versus FEC and reduce the influence of money on the development of public policy. Do not rush to announce a new standard bearer, however, bypass Harris and Newsome. Stop the anti-Trump rhetoric and focus on the Project 25 agenda. As I see it, the US is heading towards its very own two-state solution at a time when we require a collaborative effort to face down the greatest existential threat to our species, which is the climate crisis. On the upside, I look forward to seeing Trump’s relationship with President Musk go up in flames, in the Battle of the Narcissists. Finally, another consequence of an America First strategy is whether Trump will continue to browbeat and show contempt for his allies, or will he embrace them in the light of the creation of AAS, the Alliance of Autocratic States which includes Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
The EU is in turmoil with the rise of the far right in both Germany and France, exacerbated by both political and economic chaos. Migration is at the top of the agenda across Europe, this along with a cost-of-living crisis and the failure of governments to meet their long-standing obligation to invest in public services, is fuelling the rise of populous parties and putting the EU under some threat. The fact is, that the EU as currently constituted is in trouble with some looking east and others looking west. This will be unsustainable. Many challenges face the EU, its lack of defence infrastructure and its defence spending which remains under 2% of GDP, low investment in technologies of the future, no major chip manufacturers an unclear industrial strategy and to top it all, Donald Trump. An EU as currently constituted is shifting right in a multi-polar world and may require a rethink.
Here in the UK Keir and the new Labour government got off to a bad start crassly cutting winter fuel allowance and then taking free suits and freebies, showing no political intelligence. A government that talks more about pain than the road to a better future: Rachael has tried and failed to be an Iron Chancellor. She failed to tax wealth and deal with corporate tax evasion of companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon which runs into hundreds of millions. Close the immoral difference in tax rates between income and capital gains. This alone would have raised £45 billion per year and preferable to the rise in employer’s national insurance. Do more innovative things like raising the VAT rate on luxury cars from 20% to 25% and cap upfront income tax relief on pension contributions to the basic rate, according to the IFS this could raise £15 billion. She says she does not want to disincentivise entrepreneurs; I am one and the tax rates have never had any impact on my investment decisions, it is all about the product, its potential and most importantly the people. There are tough decisions to be made about migration, reform and funding of public services, nationalisation of the water industry, tax, and borrowing. Yes, the Labour government was handed a poison chalice but stop talking about the black hole and govern. Governing means bringing the electorate along with you, they understand “choices.” To be honest, growth alone will not cut the mustard if social cohesion underpins the current Labour government’s thinking. As I have said before Keir would not have been my choice as a Labour leader and Angela is no John Prescott but a failure to show a trajectory to the improvement in people’s lives across a range of issues will see the rise of Reform and the possibility of an unholy alliance between the far right of the Tory Party, the anti-immigration and policy free zone that is Reform. The principle of populous right-wing politics is just to be popular, exploit anger and sell political and economic utopias without providing credible solutions, a bit like Jeremy. Finally, to remind Keir his majority is large and slim at the same time, failure will not be accepted by an electorate that has given him a huge Commons majority. So, be bold, be honest, speak to the voters directly, invest, reform, and focus on the future, anything less will not be acceptable. It would be remiss of me not to mention the election of the new UK’s first black female party leader Kemi Badenoch, done, let’s move on.
China’s century is not working out, growth has slowed the property market has crashed and the CCP continue to bail out state enterprises, local government and Belt and Road countries to the tune of trillions of Dollars. In addition, China has a demographic time bomb that will see productivity fall. China’s main concern is to avoid a trade war with the US which it can ill afford. Despite China’s economic and technological progress, it still lags behind the US in future technologies. China under President Xi wishes to displace the US as the pre-eminent global power which was an optimistic goal a decade ago and remains so today. Its aggressive stance in the South China Sea is uniting nations in the region to push back and its regular displays of military might around democratic Taiwan is a sign of weakness, a strategy that simply provides some wolf warrior images to be consumed by the proletariat and divert their attention from economic failures. China cannot assume that Trump’s contempt for his allies leaves the door open for them to do as they please in the South China Sea or threaten Taiwan. Finally, China’s support for Putin is counter-intuitive on economic grounds, let alone that Putin’s war against Ukraine breaks Article 2 of the UN Charter. Under this principle, forcible imposition of a border change is an act of aggression. China exports $1.5 trillion to G7 countries, the EU and Australia and $76 billion to Russia, yet it wastes its political influence and geo-political status on supporting a tyrant, just to give the US the middle finger. China has also to contend with the new kid on the block, India, which will be the fastest-growing economy in Asia. Many global companies see India as a safer place to invest and create safer supply chains. President Xi has made the CCP his party as it was in Mao’s era. With President Xi in power, China’s century seems further away. The reality is that China’s nemesis the US has a GDP per capita of $65,000 while it has a GDP per capita of $12,400, so China needs to balance its geopolitical stance, its alliances, and its desire to upend the US with the inevitable geoeconomic downside. It is important to note that China’s balance of trade is £1.0 trillion. Apologies, I forgot to mention China’s embrace of the surveillance society, the oppression of the Uyghurs and the forgotten Chinaisation of Tibet.
Let us talk about the rest of Asia. Firstly, Mr Modi was given a kick in the almonds when his predicted number of seats in the Indian Lok Sabha, India’s parliament fell well short, neutering his Hindu nationalist agenda. This can be seen in a more activist Supreme Court which is trying to uphold India’s secular constitution, particularly on the issue of minority rights. Global companies and India’s huge conglomerates will continue and accelerate investment with the government focusing on improving infrastructure. The country is to grow at above 6% however, the challenge remains, which is how this increased prosperity is shared. Japan the 3rd largest economy in the world must deal with its most important challenge in the medium term, which is the greying of the country. This will have a major impact on growth and the national debt already sitting at a staggering 217% of GDP. On the upside, the US has facilitated a new relationship between South Korea and Japan which bolsters security in the region and a counterbalance to the regional power, China. However, recent events of political turmoil in South Korea need to be watched, to be sure China and North Korea are rubbing their hands.
The African continent as a whole suffers from poor governance which exacerbates economic failure and ethnic differences which can be seen playing out in Sudan. Sudan is the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis that is simply being ignored. South Africa is a case of poor governance, though the South African electorate will give the new coalition, the government of national unity a chance to deliver on economic growth, youth unemployment, energy generation and poverty. Failure will be disruptive not just for South Africa but the whole continent. Many countries on the continent are resource-rich with commodities such as gold, oil platinum and diamonds but have failed to develop an added value chain and as a result, these countries are compromised by fluctuating commodity prices. If an African Union is to mean anything, countries throughout the continent need to collaborate and create a vision that will satisfy the youngest population in the world, or else.
Central and South America featured little in Trump’s rants however, his administration will focus on Mexico bashing, around the issue of trade imbalances, drugs, and illegal migration. Trump has promised to remove millions of illegal migrants, this will be a priority as it was a major plank of his election victory. The new Mexican president will have to manage the illegal migration issue and try and protect its exports to the US which account for around 80% of Mexico’s total exports. The chainsaw-wielding Argentinian President Javier Melei is trying to remake the economy by taking a chainsaw to public expenditure to get a balanced budget and reduce national debt that reached 155% of GDP. He has also stopped printing money to reduce inflation from over 150%. To attain these goals Melei will want support from Trump to access funds from the IMF to soften any future social headwinds.
Brazilian President Lula is fighting for the country’s soul against the right-wing opposition. The Bolsonaroesk opposition is challenging his economic reforms, which involve shifting the tax burden to the better of. Though popular, Lula might be forced into an early and disruptive election and the possible return of Bolsonaro. I would like to thank the Brazilian president for a dramatic reduction in the deforestation of the Amazon.
Finally, the two biggest challenges to our collective future, are the climate crisis and AI. Regarding climate, once again Cop has failed to deal with the dire urgency of this issue with mitigation efforts in billions rather than trillions. We as a planet are close to passing the irreversible post-industrial revolution 1.5 degrees and at 2 degrees, we will condemn many of our global citizens to hell on earth (no exaggeration). If you think migration is an issue now, wait until we are talking about 10’s of millions not hundreds of thousands. The International Rescue Committee report called World Out of Balance is a sobering yet depressing read. Hundreds of millions suffer from food insecurity where 80% of the world’s population could be suffering crop failure as a direct consequence of climate change. Hundreds of millions across the globe need humanitarian aid while tens of millions are being displaced by conflict. All this while sports washing is happening on a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars, remember Qatar and now let us watch the Saudis do the same. Add to this that global wealth inequality is rocketing with 1% of the world population hoarding 40% of global wealth while the bottom 50% have 2%. So, what are the developed countries doing (an interesting term developed, certainly not their humanity) cutting foreign aid? I ask the same question again, Is humanity as a collective agent an illusion? Benedict Anderson provocatively described nation-states as” imagined communities.
AI is being lauded as the great saviour and I agree, particularly in human health, and the climate crisis. Geoffrey Hinton resigned from Google to highlight the existential risks of AI. So, what are these risks? Work, which gives us meaning and status is under threat. Open AI found that 80% of the US workforce could have up to 50% of their work affected by AI. Other analysts have estimated that 800 million jobs could be at stake in the coming two decades. What that will mean for social cohesion and public service provision is not worth considering. Added to this is the question, who will control this technology, and can it be regulated? The answer is it cannot be left in the control of a handful of corporations. When one Google executive was asked if governments could regulate their businesses, he replied no, because we are a decade ahead of governments. The most compelling near-term threat is that AI can accelerate the spread of misinformation and disinformation. So, in summary, the real risk of unregulated AI is its potential to cause political chaos and social breakdown.
Since I am a citizen of Northern Ireland so, in summary, are my thoughts about home. We will continue to be lumbered by a dysfunctional political system called a mandatory coalition run by a bunch of people on the Hill who have no vision, no plan, or the intellectual capacity to navigate a future for the next generation. As our public services crumble before our eyes no minister has the balls to tell or explain to the electorate that money must be raised to fund investment for example in our crumbling water infrastructure and healthcare system. All parties now have one mantra, “blame the Brits” for their short-sightedness and incompetence. John O’Dowd’s answer to the water issue is “no water rates.” A charge of £200 per household per annum could raise £160 million. The cap on rates should be raised to £600,000 and the cap lifted for houses valued over £1.5 million. In addition, free prescriptions should be scrapped except for those on benefits and the most vulnerable in society and we (not me) have signed up not just to an apartheid system of education but one that costs an additional £200 million a year to administer. We now have a new government program which like others before, is just another fairytale. One thing we can be sure of is that in 2027 we will vote for the same half-wits. As someone on the progressive pragmatic left, Tiocfaidh ár lá, our day will come, until then it is the SDLP, Alliance or the UUP under the charismatic leadership of Mike Nesbitt, as Blackadder put it “You lucky, lucky, lucky bastards.”
I am now exhausted, another year in which the human race disappoints, where the murder of women and children in Gaza is described as collateral damage, where a nation’s moral core has been eroded, war and famine in Sudan that warrants little coverage, the election of Donald Trump, our inability to collaborate on the climate crisis, the rise of the bullshit right and were liberal democracy is under pressure. A species is defined as a group of organisms that can reproduce with one another in nature and produce fertile offspring, on this count and this count alone, we are doing well. Finally, wishing everyone a Happy New Year in an era defined as the Anthropocene is a bit of a stretch. Speak in 2025
Suneil Sharma
31st December 2024
The Gob 
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