I asked a question in a previous blog “Small Boats Small Beer” Is humanity as a collective agent an illusion? Well, the answer to that is sadly, an emphatic YES.
Let us start locally, in a tiny place called Northern Ireland, where in 2023 many engaged in a backslapping event celebrating 25 years since the signing of the Belfast agreement. An event I called celebrating 25 years of inertia. Yes ok, we got the end to mayhem, murders, and violence which I and many others are truly grateful for. However, the achievements by the Motley Crew of Mediocrity on the Hill have been slim at best. Today, after almost two years we still have no government, though it could have been worse, we could have had one. Public services are failing to meet needs, particularly in health and education. One party bangs on about the union and the other about a border poll, neither seemed concerned with dealing with the cost-of-living crisis that many of our citizens are facing. We as a community are up the creak without a paddle, conned by a political class that has no competence, vision, or concern for the next and coming generations. For those craving Stormont’s return, can I say, “I ain’t missing you at all”? So, all members of our community (and to describe this place as a community is a bit of a stretch) can look forward to 2024 as being, “de ja vous” all over again” and blaming the Brits for all our woes, no longer cuts the mustard. On to the national picture, though I understand that the term may offend people.
Twelve months on from the Tory Party’s experiment with Liz Truss as Prime Minister, what has changed? The Tories sold the anointment of Rishi the Technocrat and former Hedge Fund Manager as a boy with economic competence and integrity. His achievements have been thin on the ground, other than his much-lauded BS, masquerading as pledges. He is taking credit for stopping the boats, but the boats have not stopped, and his immoral Rwanda policy lies in tatters. The new Home Secretary ironically called Cleverly, has pulled off a legislative move to circumvent the Supreme Court decision which called the Rwanda Scheme unlawful and classified Rwanda as an unsafe country. The strategy is to pass legislation saying, that Rwanda is a safe country which is equivalent to passing legislation saying that a donkey is no longer a donkey but a horse.
Though the legislation has passed its first hurdle in the Commons, the war is not over, because in 2024 the Torys on the right, middle and left will tear themselves apart over amendments. Inflation has fallen from 11% to 4% by imposing financial pain on ordinary people. Let’s be clear the reduction in inflation has nothing to do with Rishi and his government, this is all down to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England raising interest to nearly 6%. This resulted in mortgage payments doubling, driving down demand. Food inflation is still at 7% and energy costs are twice what they were two years ago. Growth in the coming years will be minuscule, way less than 1% in the next 2-3 years with a possible recession on the horizon. Does Rishi really expect the electorate to believe that minor changes to the tax regime announced in the autumn statement will accelerate enough growth to fund key public services properly? The NHS is on the verge of a nervous breakdown, waiting lists are up at 7.7 million, councils are going bust and the national debt will be 100% of GDP, £2.6 trillion.
Please read my blog control and click https://grumpyoldbastard870122708.wordpress.com/2023/12/17/jesus-rishi-have-you-lost-your-marbles-this-is-a-rhetorical-question/
Sunak and his mate next door talk about fiscal headroom, the reality is they are fiscal empty heads. Often those on the Tory right would scold people for talking about “declinism.” Declinism is only a negative if you are blind to it, recognition of it opens your eyes to the possibility of a solution. Rishi sold his political soul to the devil by bringing back into government the likes of Braverman and more recently he resurrected the half-wit Cameron, who started the Brexit debacle and, in the process, turned Great Britain into Little Britain. Rishi resurrected Ester McVey (of GB News) as common-sense Czar, a role equivalent to Monty Python’s Ministry of Funny Walks. Her pre-election role, wait for it, revolves around an anti-woke agenda. Rishi has found in Giorgia Meloni, a new political soulmate, an Italian Prime Minister with an impeccable far-right populist pedigree and neo-fascist roots.
Private jetting setting Rishi flew for 12 hours to attend the COP 28 conference, for 10 hours, bullshitting about the UK’s global leadership on the climate emergency and his commitment to net zero by 2050. It is his government that has issued licences for further oil exploration and extraction, under the lie of energy security. Any oil extracted will be sold on the global markets, this oil is not great British Oil and will not do anything for the country’s energy security. Yet again, it is just another piece of Rishi BS. On the international stage, our status as a nation diminished the moment we left the EU. No longer the conduit for the United States to understand the complexity of the decision-making process and thinking in the EU, no longer able to strike trade agreements as a member of a five hundred million market and the illusion of Global Britain laid bare.
In 2024 an incoming Labour government will have an economic and budgetary challenge. Still, this challenge can be overcome if, Keir can engage and articulate to the electorate a compelling vision of the country’s future. Explaining there will be some pain, particularly on the tax front for example equalising income and capital gain tax and a wealth tax that is supported by over 70% of the population. He must also show a relentless drive to a green transition and explain the economic opportunities therein. The party must engage in a digital democracy strategy to ensure that we have a better informed and engaged electorate which is key to the future of our democracy. Keir Starmer can be a transformative Prime Minister and engaging with the electorate is key, I hope he does not blow it. A good start for him would be to read the report by the Resolution Foundation, Centre for Economic Performance and the Nuffield Foundation called, Ending Stagnation: A New Economic Strategy for Britain.
After the massacre of 1300 Israeli civilians on October 7th followed by the deeply depressing pictures of Gaza being turned into a wasteland by the IDF, under the guise of eliminating Hamas, Mr Sunak is unable to pluck up the political courage to call for a ceasefire even after weeks of the terrifying onslaught by the Israeli forces that has resulted in the killing of the thousands of Palestinian children. One thing the current government has got right is its unwavering support for Ukraine. The government has led the democratic world on this issue and pushed Germany into supporting the Ukrainian struggle against a new Stalin rather than worrying about its cheap gas supplies. Finally, when the election happens in 2024, I look forward to seeing the back of Rishi and his mob and hope to see how Keir reinvigorates representative democracy in this country.
Let us talk global. This year 2023 has been a terrible year with the continuing war in Ukraine which seems to be at a stalemate because of the cautious approach of Western powers to arming the Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian conflict has been superseded in the news ecosystem by the massacre of innocent civilians in Israel on October 7th. What legitimately started as Israel defending against Hamas, is no longer about Israel’s right to defend itself but the right to collectively punish innocent Palestinians. This has led to the death of ten thousand women and children and Gaza turned into a wasteland. We complain about protesters worldwide using the term “From the river to the sea Palestine will be free “as anti-Semitic and I can understand why. However, many of the religious far right in Israel, believe the same, that is the expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank which they refer to as Judea and Samaria. This is part of Netanyahu’s cabinet that does not recognise the term occupied territories. The current Israeli government are encouraging members of the settler movement to take the opportunity, as the world’s eyes on Gaza, to start a process of ethnic cleansing, by terrorising Palestinian communities and villages in the West Bank. To people on Netanyahu’s cabinet such as Ben Gavir of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party and Simcha Rothman of the right-wing Religious Zionist Party, they also have a chant “From the river to the sea, not a Palestinian will be seen.” As US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin put it recently, the Israeli government military’s onslaught which has resulted in the deaths of thousands of Palestinian children and civilians and bombed Gaza into a wasteland may be a tactical victory but a strategic defeat. Control and Click https://grumpyoldbastard870122708.wordpress.com/2023/11/03/the-tragedy-continues-2/
Across the pond watching Biden is making me nervous, I hoped that when he became president, at some point before the mid-term terms he would announce that he would not be standing for a second term. This would have been couched on the basis that he had saved America and the world from a second Trump term and highlighting some significant legislative wins on infrastructure and the Inflation Reduction Act. Based on such an announcement the Democratic Party would have had 2 years to groom a person from a younger generation to stand for the presidency in 2024. The decision by the Democrats to hang on to Biden is a strategic failure which may yet come back to haunt us all. There is no question that the US elections are the most consequential event in 2024. A Trump victory will see elements of Gilead as portrayed in Margaret Attwood’s book The Handmaid’s Tale being played out. The current house speaker Mike Johnson has tendencies like Commander Waterford and will stand back and gleefully watch, as Trump in his unhinged rage, wages war on American institutions such as the Justice Dept and democracy itself. The only people who will rejoice in a Trump victory are the Freedom Caucus, far-right Republican evangelical Christians, China, North Korea, Iran, and others with an authoritarian streak. If the Republican Party, take the House and the Senate, it would be fair to say that the nutters have taken over the asylum. These will include, climate deniers, election deniers, pro-lifers, conspiracy theorists, isolationists, white supremacists, and Christian nationalists, apologise if I have left anyone out. The likes of Chris Christie will have no place in a Republican Party, that will use Trump as a conduit to enact illiberal and far-right public policy with the Bible as its guiding document. Concerns about Joe’s age are further exacerbated by the fact that he also has the lowest approval rating of an incumbent president, in recent times. Irrespective of all that, his team has concluded that Joe Biden is the only Democrat who can defeat the likely republican nominee for President, Donald Trump. However, if Joe and the Democrats fail, the consequences are not worth thinking about.
2024 will see a voting frenzy. One to watch is in Taiwan where the result will see a pivot towards China or away from China and more democracy. This will have important geopolitical consequences. India will see Modi and his BJP romp home in India and further advance and consolidate India’s role as a key player on the world stage. It will also mean that Modi will continue to undermine India’s secular constitution by encouraging Hindu Nationalism, it is this the Indians should fear most. Russian elections will be the usual rigged affair with only one winner and one loser, the winner will be Putin and the losers will be the Russian people. The Islamic State of Iran otherwise known as the Authoritarian Misogynist State of Iran are having elections in 2024. A regime that kills young women who wish to express some individuality, hangs young men who support them, will continue to terrorise its people and engage in proxy wars with their Sunni Muslim brothers. The regime will remain a disruptive force in the region by using Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis as brothers in arms. In addition, the Iranian regime will continue to supply armed drones to their new best friend, Vladimir Putin. Finally, Iran will continue to accelerate its nuclear capacity, until the region explodes.
There will also be elections in South Africa which may see the end of the ANC hegemony. The ANC has governed South Africa since 1994 and now presides over a country in which 30% of a population of 62 million live in extreme poverty, a number that continues to rise. Rather than sorting the electricity problem, endemic corruption, 60% unemployment amongst 15–24-year-olds, the highest inequality globally measured by the Gini Coefficient, crime rampant with the 3rd highest crime rate in the world and 25% of the population about 12.0 million still in townships, Ramaphosa is trying to be the big BRIC. As governance is failing, Ramaphosa aligns the ANC with Russia on the war with Ukraine and carries out joint naval exercises with Russia and China. He looks like a man fiddling as Rome burns. The new apartheid is no longer black versus white but the growing gap between rich and poor. Let us hope that a new government can breathe life back into Mandella’s dream of South Africa being the continent’s democratic shining star.
Voters in the EU will be going to the polls in June 2024 and the predictions are that the centre of political gravity will shift right and party’s hostile to immigration. Underlying all this is a struggle for the soul of the EU, integrationists versus nationalists and liberal versus illiberal. As the US commitment in Europe begins to reduce, the EU and in particular Germany must step up by getting spending on defence to at least 2.0% of GDP. There is also an urgent need to integrate Ukraine into the EU family, faster. Germany has overpromised and under-delivered in providing the sort of military tools which would allow Ukraine to hit Russia where it hurts, for example, the bridge that connects Crimea to Russia which is a vital artery for the supply of Russian arms. From a geopolitical perspective, the outcome of the election could affect continued or at least the quantum of support for Ukraine but anything in the future that looks like a Russian victory will only weaken the EU. It is time for the EU to man up geopolitically, anything less will be a strategic failure. In addition, it will be also interesting to see if any significant change in Brussels will see a watering down of the EU’s commitment to the green transition.
The tragedy that is Gaza will continue well into 2024 because the narcissist that is Netanyahu is trying to recover his political street cred as Mr Security, on the basis that killing children and innocent Palestinians civilians will placate, both his political and security failures. I am tired of listening to IDF BS, that they are minimising the deaths of children and innocent civilians and in the same breath, they talk of thousands of targeted bombings in an area of 140 sq. miles, the most densely populated place in the world. The dream in 1994 was a two-state solution that dream has all but been destroyed, not just by what happened on October 7th and the collective punishment meted out in Gaza by the IDF but by the fact that Netanyahu and his religious far-right coalition has never believed in a two-state solution. There is still a glimmer of hope for a two-state solution. Firstly, Hamas must show contrition and strategic and political courage by recognising Israel’s right to exist. The Palestinian people will get some hope of a two-state solution from a BBC Newsnight interview with Ehud Olmert. In the interview, he slams Netanyahu and his government not just for its obvious political and security failures, he also suggests even at this low point the two-state solution can be resurrected. He starts by saying that all illegal settlements must be removed, and this would be delivered by a strong government. He went on to say, that even though this will cause some friction within Israel and even a violent backlash, he believes that the vast majority of Israelis know that this must be part of a real solution and are pragmatic enough to support this. He also concluded that Palestinians have a fundamental right to self-determination without which there is no future free from violence, for either Israelis or Palestinians. What is needed is an election to remove Netanyahu and his zealot allies who are trying to undermine any prospect of peace and undermine Israeli democracy itself. A new credible, and pragmatic Israeli Government must act in good faith and not be held hostage by the extremes in Israeli society. In addition, the Palestinian people will need a new and single Palestinian voice that will collectively recognise Israel’s right to exist, as a precursor to negotiations. Please read my blog control and click https://grumpyoldbastard870122708.wordpress.com/2023/11/03/the-tragedy-continues-2/.
Ukraine has been put on the media back burner because of the conflict in Palestine but its importance geo politically has not diminished. What could diminish is the scale of ongoing economic and military support from the US and the EU. The upcoming election in the US and the EU will be watched with great interest and trepidation by Zelinsky. There is a stalemate on the Ukrainian frontlines and discord within the military hierarchy however, this is due to the Western government’s failure and fear to give the Ukrainians the tools to win, rather than a strategy of giving the Ukrainians just enough not to be overrun. Failure to wholeheartedly support Ukraine’s military will have grave consequences for the NATO Alliance.
Ai has jumped up the political agenda because of the risks highlighted by Hinton and Bengio so, in 2024 governments must start to build the regulatory frameworks that keep us all safe and how the technology can be harnessed to improve the human condition in terms of medical science and the climate crisis. There are several risks and related questions that remain unanswered. These include, whether Ai will be a replacer or an enabler in terms of the future of work, how we humans remain in charge and will there be a big red button to kill it. However, the greatest threat of Ai comes from how it could be used to further polarise and undermine our democracies. Though the purveying of disinformation is not a new phenomenon, Ai takes it to a new and accessible level with for example, the use of deep fakes. The question will arise, will the belief in an accessible and objective truth be the collateral damage? Trump’s advisor Kelly Anne Conway described disinformation as “alternative facts”. One thing is clear, is this technology must not be left in the hands of a few multinational corporations.
2024 will see the continuing clash of civilisations. In this new multi polar world we will see the continuing clash of civilisations. This is essentially a clash of values, culture, traditions and let us not forget the opium of the masses, religion. A key element of this clash will be the clash between Democracies and Authoritarianism. Authoritarians offer the illusion of stability and getting things done, some do not even offer that, for example, Iran Russia and North Korea. Saudia Arabia and other Gulf states see democracy as a threat equivalent to Qaeda-type jihadism. Western democracies are under pressure as they are unable to meet the needs of their electorate and a seem unable to navigate this multi polar world. There will be a clashes between the informed and the misinformed, between those who see themselves as part of a global community and those who become increasingly more isolationist. At a national level, the clash will be on the basis “ you ain’t heavy your my brother” view of society or the myth that cutting taxes and letting your credit-driven addiction run free, is the route to an economic and political nirvana. The ultimate clash from a geopolitical perspective is the rivalry between the US and China, and the clash that will determine the future of humankind is the clash between those who understand the threat of climate change and those who are in blind denial, whoever wins that argument will ultimately decide all our futures.
In respect of the world’s economy, the outlook is uncertain. Inflation has fallen, employment is strong, and Europe has weaned itself off Russian gas without suffering economic cold turkey. Central banks in developed economies have reduced inflation by inflicting pain on ordinary people by increasing interest rates. America’s economy looks fine, with inflation at under 4% and growth at 2.4%, the only cloud is its massive, some would say unsustainable national debt of $33.0 trillion. It must also be noted that the election of “Tariff Trump” could play havoc with the world economy. Finally, what has not yet been played out is the impact on the world economy of reshoring, regionalisation, protectionism, China’s economic wabbles and what was described by the Economists as, “home economics”, such as the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. We have new phrases such as “Stealthflation” which is simply, under the cosh of shareholder tyranny, companies are forced to increase margins and profits on the back of consumers, who are suffering a cost-of-living crisis. If social cohesion is not the primary motive of our politicians when developing public policy, what is it? Please read my blog Greedy Bastards, Control and click https://grumpyoldbastard870122708.wordpress.com/2023/07/13/959/
The last concern for 2024 is how the world will ramp up its efforts to prevent an irreversible climate catastrophe. We have just had COP 28 in Qatar, a country whose main source of income is oil and gas exports and who spend this largesse on a combination of sports and greenwashing such as the football World Cup, that cost them $225 billion. Climate change is undoubtedly the greatest challenge to our species, read my blog control and click https://grumpyoldbastard870122708.wordpress.com/2023/08/04/as-the-world-polarises-the-planet-burns/. The report cards up till now reflect more about what has not been achieved rather than basking in humanity’s success. The world’s leaders promised that we would keep global average temperatures below 3 degrees by 2100. We have made progress the new estimate is 2.9 degrees. The frustration is we know what needs to be done and have the technology to do it but the ingredient we lack as a global community, is political will. We need a rapid phasing out of oil and gas matched with an equally rapid transition to green energy. This will require national governments to stop cowing to the fossil fuel lobby and their paymasters in OPEC and Big Oil. COP 28 must also ensure that transition is just, in that the economies that caused the crisis, support those countries in the global south suffering from it. Antonio Guterres General Secretary recently said, “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator,” we need to find reverse gear and find it soon.
Finally, the greatest threat to the so-called international order comes from no other than the US and its current political polarisation and dysfunction. If Trump wins the presidential elections this dystopian outcome will shape the political, geopolitical and global economic landscape for years to come, the consequence of which sends a shiver up my spine.
In conclusion, Naomh Chomsky when asked, what was the greatest threat to our future, his answer was, a disengaged and ill-informed electorate. My father told me that according to Hindu scripture we, that is the human species, are in an era described as “Kul Yug” the end era. How long that era lasts is unknown, but the trajectory is only one way. I hope the Hindu scriptures are wrong. At the start of this piece, I asked the question,” Is humanity as a collective agent an illusion,” my answer was yes, how do you feel now? Please read my blog control and click https://grumpyoldbastard870122708.wordpress.com/2023/10/09/small-boatssmall-beer/
Have a great 2024.
Suneil Sharma
4th January 2024
The Gob 
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