My blog https://grumpyoldbastard870122708.wordpress.com/2023/05/15/preaching-to-the-converted/ about the most recent supplement from Ireland’s Future quite frankly and I believe accurately concluded it wasn’t worth the paper it was written on. On the other hand, I acknowledged the comment from Minister Richmond “that it is essential to make “Northern Ireland work and to make it work now”. A eureka moment that stated the obvious, whether you believe in maintaining the Union or an advocate for a New and United Ireland.
I listened carefully to Wednesday night’s Ireland Future debate,3 times. Let us start with the poetic and hypotonic analysis of Brendan O’Leary. His broad tenant was that the UK is a failing state that anyone with a bit of wit would want to embrace the fiscal and progressive utopia that Ireland has become. In addition, he also implied that Northern Cultural Catholics (whomever he is referring to) and Catholic Unionists are a bit dim and suffer from an “information deficit” in that Ireland is better governed, has better healthcare, is more prosperous and has higher levels of educational attainment than the North and conveniently blames, guess who, the British media. The question as to why all Catholics are not Irish Nationalists is simple, the Catholic middle class, like others in their cohort, see Irish Unity through the prism of economic security, the prospects of economic prosperity and political stability. Who is going to tell cultural Catholics, many employed in the civil and public services that 10’s of thousands of jobs will have to go in line with ratios in the Republic? Currently, in the civil service alone, Northern Ireland employs 1 civil servant for 70 of the population against 1:110 in the Republic. In addition, public servants make up 27% of the Northern Ireland workforce, which is 15% in the Republic. The assertions that Prof O’Leary made were not backed up by any data otherwise known as an “information deficit”. Just on the healthcare piece and to provide some balance the world population review shows the UK well ahead of Ireland in the rankings. The Irish healthcare is so good, that in the most recent research by Health Insurance Authority, 47.5% of the Irish population now have private health insurance, representing one of the highest in Europe. He also states, without any evidence that Ireland is more liberal but ignores the fact that both jurisdictions have enacted equal marriage legislation.
We understand that “Loser’s Consent” does not mean that the minority has a veto. Though he surprisingly suggests that in a survey he had conducted, 2/3 of protestants would gracefully accept the outcome of a referendum that voted for Irish Unity, with 1/3 remaining hostile to it. This third would surprisingly, require a secular education system, funny because we in Northern Ireland have an apartheid system of education that embeds division in both the form of faith and educational inequality, supported broadly by the middle classes and the Catholic Church. He also said they would require a socialised health system along the lines of the NHS, acceptance of British-only citizenship and a devolved Stormont. Exactly to whom is Brendan talking? He suggests that Ireland should consider joining the Commonwealth, a body with no political or judicial power over its members, as a comprise to appease the rabid Brits in the North. Then he disparagingly refers to “King Billy the Third” as someone not likely to head the Commonwealth in the future. He compares the journey to Irish unity with German unification and then compares NI to East Germany because of the fear of the costs of transition. There is a concern about the costs of transition because those who support a transition to a New Ireland (yet to be defined) have singularly failed to lay out a plan that people can critique. Just as an aside, remember the GDR was a totalitarian state, West Germany a liberal democracy but they were all German.
Professor O’Leary suggests that the subvention is BS but provides no data to substantiate this and then goes on to suggest that the Irish Govt should create a sovereign wealth fund from its budget surplus to fund the transition, from a country that runs a public debt per capita of € 44,000 one of the highest in the world. Sovereign wealth funds are not set up because of an occasional budget surplus, as can be seen from the oil-rich countries of Norway, Qatar Kuwait, and countries like Singapore with little or no net national debt. Countries with a track record of an ongoing current account surplus could also set up sovereign wealth funds. Politically, I wonder if the electorate in the 26 counties would be happy to see budget surpluses transferred to a sovereign wealth fund to be used for Irish unification or would they prefer it to be set aside for a very likely, rainy day.
Paul Gosling in a draft report suggested that the British Government would need to provide financial support for Irish unification until 2050, thereafter, guess what, the Irish Government may have to step in with its, very own subvention. Former Governor of Ireland Central Bank Patrick Honohan has asserted in a paper called “Is Ireland really the most prosperous country in Europe” that Ireland’s ever-expanding GDP, to coin a word used by Brendan O’Leary about the subvention, was a myth. He identified the gravity-defying 26% growth in GDP in 2015 which Nobel Prize-winning economists Paul Krugman dubbed “leprechaun economics”. Honohan points out that Government statisticians embarrassed by the “leprechaun economics” have developed a new bespoke index adjusting for the multinationals’ overpowering influence it shows that Ireland’s underlying economic activity is about 40 per cent lower than the headline GDP figures, leaving Ireland out of the top 25% of Eu economies.These GDP distortions come from global companies such as Apple transferring IP to Irish units. Other companies transferred capital assets which would have included technology patents and aircraft leases to their units in Ireland. The transfer of global HQs to Ireland also contributed to this by undistributed global profits adding to the distortion in GDP. Honohan summed it all up by saying “Ireland’s first-in-class ranking is clearly misleading”.
Professor John Fitzgerald from Trinity in a report said that Irish unification will come at a high price for the Republic, reducing income and living standards by as much as 15%. None of the panel members or the attendees challenged Mr O’Leary’s assertions, as if they had been written on tablets of stone and had come down from Mt Sinai.
Stephen Farry’s contribution could be fairly described as an incomprehensible waffle. He talked about being open-minded and that his party is a cross-community party that is not defined by the constitutional question. Though in the next breath, he said that his party had members of both unionist and nationalist traditions. He intimated that on the constitutional issue, his party would now be happy to engage in this debate on an “On a without prejudice basis”, classic Alliance. Nothing new about a party that wants to be all things to all people, all of the time and in terms of political ideology, it would be easier to nail jelly to the wall. The only sensible and obvious thing he said was, that the time was not right for a border poll.
Gerry Adams as usual came across the great sage of Irish nationalism. He falsely claimed that the assembly has no revenue-raising powers, though he is technically correct in that the assembly has no fiscal powers. As far as revenue is concerned, the assembly has made political choices not to stop free prescription for all, decided not to implement water charges and blew £150m on a populist post covid handout. The assembly continue to support an apartheid education structure that costs £226 m a year extra to maintain. We are not governed by others as he suggests, we are governed by a political cabal on the hill that at best can be described as, mediocre. He complains that they, the “British Govt” cannot be sacked, yes, they can and will be at the next UK general election the UK in 2024. The GFA is being implemented, the problem is that Sinn Fein and other parties signed up for this unaccountable, ineffective and an oxymoron of a political system called a “mandatory coalition” into which inertia was designed. The mantra of blaming the Brits, particularly the Tories for all our woes is getting a bit thin, though Boris was a bollocks. Gerry complains that the Irish and British governments are currently against a referendum. I believe they are right for obvious reasons, such as there is no defined plan for a “New Ireland, no clear majority for one, not even amongst so-called cultural Catholics and they fear the consequences of a 50+1 outcome. The Republican movement has not even in broad terms, laid out a vision for this “New Ireland”, one simple question, will it have a secular constitution? Let’s put to bed a Republican red herring that the British Government has some Machiavellian plan to thwart Irish unification, there is no such plan by this or any future British Government to undermine Irish unification. A broad consensus is desired and here the onus is on nationalists to engage and evangelise on the benefits for all citizens, old and new, of a New Ireland. On this I agree with Gerry, that there is a “big job of work “to be done, in which case, stop preaching to the converted and start a process of engaging with a wider electorate including, the little-known part of the electorate called the “Persaudables” which includes me.
Finally, on The View, the following night Ben Lowry made the obvious point with which I agree, in that a united is closer but not close, the condition for a border poll in broad terms has not been met. He did make the case that not getting past the 40% barrier in the local election was a wake-up call for unionism. My question to Ben is, is Unionism, as a political ideology or an identity “Lost in Translation or Just Loss, check out my blog on how I see it.
Patricia acknowledged that Irish identity is not directly correlated with religion but went on to repeat the blah, blah economy stuff. She went on to accept that in a new and united Ireland Sinn Fein would accept a British-only identity and a dev max Stormont in the north. Is this what we get in a New Ireland, a balkanised state where the island is carved up and where building an island on shared values with a secular constitution is the sacrificial lamb?
Duncan Morrow a member of the Alliance Party as expected, spoke not on behalf of the Alliance Party and the height of his insight was that this was not the right time for a border poll,
My last observation is this, selling a political, social and economic utopia is not a strategy. What is required is an independent internationally recognised body to go through the numbers and bring what is missing to the discussion, objectivity. Unionists, and here I disagree with Ben, should fearlessly debate the issues around a new and united Ireland, critique it and then make their case for Union, sorry, the ostrich is not a strategy.
The Gob 
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